Categories: Tropical Cyclone

National Hurricane Center Joaquin Projected Path Update

MIAMI, Florida – As of 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Thursday, October 1, 2015, the National Hurricane Center has issued a public advisory due to the presence of Hurricane Joaquin which is a Major Hurricane (Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) that could hit the U.S. east coast on Monday or Tuesday.

Hurricane Joaquin’s Projected Path

Hurricane Joaquin is located over the the Central Bahamas and moving toward the southwest at 6 mph, but a turn toward the northwest and north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday.

Joaquin is then projected to travel northward over the Atlantic Ocean parallel to the Florida coast during the weekend, and to later make landfall on the U.S. East Coast somewhere between North Carolina and Massachusetts on Monday or Tuesday. However, there still remains a large amount of storm track uncertainty beyond Sunday.

Category 4 Hurricane

Joaquin remains at Category 4 Hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds at 130 mph, with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds extend up to 45 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, from the storm’s center.

Joaquin maximum sustained winds are forecast to increase to around 140 mph on Friday, then decrease to 125 mph on Saturday.

Joaquin Spaghetti Plots

Spaghetti models have changed their guidance since this morning, with the GFS and the UKMET moving farther to the east and lying closer to the ECMWF. The HWRF has made a big jump to the east and now shows an offshore track. These changes have pushed the consensus models farther eastward. The Canadian, GFDL, and NAVGEM models are holdouts, however – still calling for Joaquin to interact with the United States trough and turn northwestward toward the U. S. coast. The new NHC forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120 hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, HWRF, and the consensus models.

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