MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, July 8, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 98L 2020 that will likely form into a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean later today before heading toward Long Island, New York.
Surface observations along with satellite and radar data indicate that Invest 98L, an area of low pressure located about 60 miles east of Wilmington, North Carolina, is gradually becoming better defined (marked with a red “X”).
The associated showers and thunderstorms are located well east and northeast of the low’s center.
NHC forecasters say that only a small increase in organization or a reformation of the center closer to the thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today or tonight.
If Invest 98L becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List is Fay.
Invest 98L is expected to move northeastward or north-northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks later today and then along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Friday.
Invest 98L has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and an 80% chance within the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days.
Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks today, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday.
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 98L will move parallel to, or along, the coasts of North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware, and New Jersey before heading towards Long Island, New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.
NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.