NOAA: Tropical Storm Eta Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Sunday, November 1, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Eta (formerly Invest 96L and Tropical Depression 29) over the central Caribbean.

This is the first time an Atlantic Hurricane Season has reached the name Eta in the Greek Alphabet.

Eta is the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season which ties the record for the number of named storms set in 2005.

Tropical Storm Eta Projected Path

Tropical Storm Eta is located about 245 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border and is moving to the west at 14 mph (22 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight.

A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Monday and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday.

Eta is forecast to move inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models

Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The dynamical models are in relatively good agreement through about 72 hours, except for the HWRF which shows a more northern track and keeps Eta offshore for much of the period.

This solution is considered an outlier at this time, and the NHC track is in good agreement with the various global models and the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Some model solutions still suggest Eta or its remnants will re-emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at or beyond day 5.

The new NHC 5-day position is still inland near the Gulf of Honduras close to the various consensus aids, but large uncertainty exists in the forecast at that time range due to the large spread in the track guidance.

Tropical Storm Eta Category Strength

Tropical Storm Eta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Eta has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h), with higher gusts.

Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane tonight, with additional strengthening likely until the hurricane makes landfall Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Eta Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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